On January 1, 2009, I made Ten Predictions for 2009. It's time for the day of reckoning. Good thing we live in the age of grace (the New Covenant), or I'd be stoned. Smile. How well did I do? Well, you can be your own judge, but let me just say I was startled by the uncanny accuracy of #'s 3, 4 and 9. The others? Well, let's just say I'm out of the prediction business for 2010.Happy New Year All,
Wade
42 comments:
Aren't there 31 days in December?
; )
I can't believe I haven't heard of This Side of Truth. I am a big Gervais fan, so I'll have to look into it. I think the move's name was changed to The Invention of Lying.
Inflation is a concern, but the question is not whether the government should print money or not - it's what the government does. Getting the balance right is always the challenge, but I've always read that deflation is even worse than inflation. No signs of hyper inflation yet, but I suppose we'll see. Keeping some investments in stocks is a good way to mitigate that risk.
Predictions are fun and risky! I enjoyed reading them.
"No signs of hyper inflation yet, but I suppose we'll see. "
Is this because they are keeping interest rates so low?
Net effect is the value of dollar has gone down. Eventually we will be paying higher prices for things imported.
Usually low interest rates will drive inflation, but this is good now because of the risk of deflation, which is pretty disastrous. Why would anyone buy something today if the price will be lower tomorrow? Deflation freezes the economy. A low rate of inflation is usually seen as optimal - the current CPI for 2009 is at about 1.8% which is pretty good.
But yeah, the dollar's value has lowered globally, which means we pay more for imports, but it also makes domestic companies more competitive internationally which is great for manufacturing.
But economics is as much art as science in my (very, very limited) book. It's a delicate balancing act that relies on perception as well as action.
Three out of ten is .300, which would get you a fat contract with most any baseball team around.
And you hit it out of the park all 3 times, so......
Freakonomics is an excellent book when thinking of economics as both art and science.
gcwiv,
:)
All posts written days before. Just jumped up in the que a little quick.
Thanks for noticing. :)
Not bad, not bad at all, though I noticed you did not predict a score for the OU-UT game. But then, I predicted USC and Ohio State would be playing for the national title this year.
No sign of inflation or hyper inflation, but the recession is all but over, though decreased unemployment is lagging, as usual, behind, but I'd go out on a limb to say it will be back down below 7% before the 2010 congressional elections come around. I'd predict that the general makeup of Congress will not be likely to change in 2010, but you can look at the polls and see that.
Any football predictions for 2010?
Wade, Thank you, again, for an excellent Blog site. I come often and enjoy every moment. "A Looking Back...." is no exception; worth the trip!
In bed this last Sunday 12/27 with a bad cold, I "worshiped" at Enid OK via DishNet. Always enjoy the moment.
Your "A Looking Back....2009" predictions are right on the money or should I say the lack of it. God alone knows where this great Country is headed. Is it our selfishness without Him that has put us on the path? 2010 must be the moment "the grass roots" moves on the present Congress, Executive and, sadly, Supreme Court to say, "Enough is enough! You are through! The Sovereign has spoken!" If not, God will give us up, give us over and judgment will be our lot. May God have mercy. c.
Chester Estes Jr
Prayer Time Ministries
Union MS 39365
Joe,
They prolly won't wake up 'till the Red Army comes marching in.
Wade,
I know that you have in the past taken "requests from the floor" as it were and I wanted to pass on some information for your excellent research examination. I relay this on this thread because this is MY 2010 prediction.
The invasion of "Brothers Caner."
I came across THIS sad bit of information today.
As you may or may not know, Ergun and Emir Caner, and their mother came to know the Lord Jesus only after coming to American in hopes of "building mosques." I praise the Lord for that and count this family as children of the Lord, and brothers and sisters in Christ. But be that as it may, Brothers Caner are extremely "Calvinistophobic" even calling Calvinism a "virus" within the SBC. One can go to the Founder's Blog to read a lot of dialogue on the subject.
Dr. Ergun Caner as you may know is the President of Liberty Baptist Theological Seminary and brother Emir is president of Truett-McConnell College. The trustees of the college have recently approved Caner's measure to force ALL faculty to sign the BFM2k by 8/11 or???
"Caner actually met with the faculty on Wednesday following the trustee meeting to inform them that they would not be expected to sign the BF&M until August 2011. The TMC president stated, “I gave the faculty and administration 18 months to sign the Baptist Faith and Message because I wanted to be pastoral in my approach to this issue.”"
Obviously (or not) I disagree with this action terribly. But I am curious from you and some on here if "Brothers Caner" pose a threat to the SBC, and secondly, is Dr. Emir's approach similar, better, worse than that of the IMB and similar situations at Southern and Southwestern.
I am not a fan of BFM2K, not because I take issues with its conservative theology, but because I think it is the most sloppy confession of faith in history (all 3), and its parameters and chosen areas of confession are not the Bible's prima facie doctrines. The BFM2K goes beyond, and yet falls short of the most important biblical precepts.
Anyway, my prediction is that Brothers Caner, through the use of an independent/SBC affiliated Baptist University and Seminary, and a Georgia Baptist College, will begin to impose their distinct Arminian and anticalvinistic flavor on the SBC. Of course I am certain the GCR will get a boost from them as well. Shall we take the good and the bad?
K
Wade, At least you know your day job is secure. We won't see you on any late nite TV with a phone number to predict the future.
I see that ABP broke this story monday HERE which seems to be a covering of the CI story. though they did mention that Dr. Emir was a dean at SWBTS, which I did not know. Was he there during the Klouda firing? Has he learned form his mistakes or not?
They prolly won't wake up 'till the Red Army comes marching in.
Thu Dec 31, 12:51:00 AM 2009
I am afraid it will be much more subtle than that. It will be years and years of grandma's being denied basic procedures because of rationing and by that time, it will be firmly implanted in our national makeup. With rationing, every individual will have to be viewed as productive or non productive as to who warrants precious resources.
Of course, the doctor or bureaucrat will not be allowed to say withholding treatment is because of rationing. You will be told something else such as it is too late, etc. And many will believe it.
My year end gift to all the ladies in the crowd. Thanks for a wonderful year of blogging.
Love in Christ our Lord,
Kevin M. Crowder
"Of course, the doctor or bureaucrat will not be allowed to say withholding treatment is because of rationing. You will be told something else such as it is too late, etc. And many will believe it."
Probably true. Sad none the less. But, probably true.
Wow, Kev, what a "gift". It's hard for me to imagine that people are really taking that sort of teaching / writing seriously. It almost sounds like a parody.
Kevin, when I read the first few paragraphs of that, I thought it was leading up to the problem of women who had spent their whole lives preparing for homemaking but found it wasn't their vocation...
Yet again, this is fetishizing a definition of homemaking that assumes income, leisure, and a great fondness for Martha Stewart. "Courses on Chinese cooking, gift-wrapping, and cake decorating" indeed. (I'm quite fond of Chinese cooking myself, btw; I learned it from cookbooks.)
As I think L's has pointed out, one way of helping your daughter (and son!) be prepared for matrimony is to give your child the foundation to support the family, should the worst happen. Whether or not your daughter hopes to stay at home with the children, wisest to educate her so that she can support herself and, God willing, a family, rather than to give her an "education" that only fits her for minimum-wage jobs.
My captcha is "reweali", which reminds me of the Episcopal service with which I was married: "at the dreadful day of judgment when the secrets of all hearts shall be disclosed". I need to work on making mine less full of anger.
Kevin, Shame on you for contradicting Christ who said Mary chose the better way. Why are you promoting that it is more Christian for women to become Martha's?
BTW: My female interist practices 3 days a week and is in with 7 other doctors. 5 are women and 2 are men. The men have also cut back to 3-4 days per week to spend with family. They all take turns covering for one another. But I suspect those days will be over soon when they become government employees and cannot choose.
BTW: The Mahaneys have little credibility since we now have the
knowledge of how SGM deal with sexual perversion in their cult. As one SGM leader put termed it: A 16 year old guy molesting a 3 year old is only experimenting. The victims family needs to forgive and stop being bitter. (Bitter is calling in the authorities. The parents were told by the church "apostles" : You have an opportunity to forgive today.
Never mind the 3 year old girl molested.
Funny how molestation is not that big of a deal but daring to disagree with the leaders is a heinous crime.
http://www.sgmsurvivors.com/?p=276
This is simply what they teach at the SGM cult. So Carolyn Mahaney has no credibility with many of us when she preaches Marthaism.
We want to protect 3 year olds from teenage predators. Not excuse them with some sort of cheap grace forgiveness with no consequences.
Some of us would even like to see them behind bars even if they are 16.
I am not aware of the case involving a 16yo and a 3yo. No one of course would condone any sort of sexual deviance in that regard, but without knowing the 16 yo and without knowing what "act" actually took place, it is not difficult to accept the possibility that a 16 yo might indeed be curious as to the female anatomy and at that young age go snooping around without a deviant thought in mind, but simply as you say act in a "curious" manner. Of course it may have been more than that, I do not know and and care not speculate. But I do know that forgiveness never involves cheap grace if it is truly forgiveness.
Btw, spare me the details of your witch hunt research on the present subject. If I should really care to know more I am capable of research on my own.
Glad you enjoyed the gift, it was actually linked today by Desiring God on fb.
K
Rationing:
I suppose the line will be longer at the dentist if the poor start going.
Hi STEVEN,
"I suppose the line will be longer at the dentist if the poor start going."
A long, long time ago, I worked at a school in Paterson, NJ.
And there, the school nurse told me that most of the children who came to her for tooth aches had never seen a dentist or had a professional cleaning.
There are certain categories of 'the poor' our society needs to protect: the little ones, the handicapped, the severely mentally ill, the very elderly. For those who want to think of us as a 'Christian Nation', let them judge our country on how carefully we watch over and care for the vulnerable who have no way to fend for themselves.
it is not difficult to accept the possibility that a 16 yo might indeed be curious as to the female anatomy and at that young age go snooping around without a deviant thought in mind,
Kevin, why do you scold Lydia for giving you evidence, then refuse to consult that evidence yourself?
The story given quite clearly says that the 16-year-old wasn't "snooping around without a deviant thought in mind" but was actually touching the 3-year-old, and that the 3-year-old was waking up with nightmares afterward.
If the 16-year-old had done nothing but peek, do you think the elders would have called the mother in?
Christiane,
I agree. And if the private sector could totally provide for the medical needs of the poor...... why are there so many poor without access to health care today?
I understand that you can only do so much for some people, but if the church, and society at large, really wanted to fix it, then we wouldn't have so many millions living without basic care. Perhaps one aspect of the government's role is to do what no one else wants to do.
BTW, I am no better than the church or society. I haven't done much to help.
Hi STEVEN,
I understand. I am opposed to a society where some are so marginalized that they lack basic humane treatment.
How this is remedied is the question. Some demand a society where the 'middle man' insurance companies must make a profit, even by denying life-giving care to their clients. Some demand for government to step in and call the insurance companies to account for the savagery and inhumanity of their deeds.
Some wish to see ALL people have health care as a basic human right.
Some accept this, but say it must be done 'privately' (and we know wht that means).
And some say it must be done with a public option. (and we THINK we know what that means because we only have 'examples' of Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, and Active-duty military health care as models.)
Apart from the extreme right and the extreme left, our country has a base of the 'wisdom of the people' and I think, in time, we will come to find something that works. I don't think it will happen suddenly. It will be a 'process' that will require adjustment and refinement, and always vigilance against the wolves who prey on the innocent.
Steven Stark said...
Rationing:
I suppose the line will be longer at the dentist if the poor start going.
If government health care typically includes dental care, one would think the British would have much better teeth than they do. :)
Christiane,
yeah, hopefully a realistic balance will be found.
Tom,
HAHAHA! That's the tooth, man.
"Btw, spare me the details of your witch hunt research on the present subject. If I should really care to know more I am capable of research on my own."
The point is, you DON'T care to know. And this is the reason you call any such information a 'witch hunt'.
Unfortuantly, The victims are used to it from those in ministry careers. But I am not which is why I will continue to get the word out and hopefully warn folks with kids how SGM responds to sexual perversion in their churches. At least their initial reaction. NOt the later PR clean up.
Are you familiar with People of Destiny? A Shepherding cult of the 70's? Besides the cultic behavior of SGM, Carolyn has become quite wealthy from their ministry and can afford all the Martha Stewart (and other Martha) lifestyles she writes about like Dorothy Patterson.
BTW: The SGM leadership had your same reaction: Boys will be boys. Case closed. But the perp confessed to doing MUCH more than just looking to the SGM leaders. Perhaps you should read the story and THEN defend what the Mahaney's have built at SGM.
"I agree. And if the private sector could totally provide for the medical needs of the poor...... why are there so many poor without access to health care today?
"
The poor do have more medical care than the working lower class. They have medicare. And all poor kids are covered ...even for dental.
It is the working class lower middle and middle who fall through the cracks. Those are the ones that need help. It seems rather strange we want to take over the entire industry to help them when we could just help them without a takeover. It would be interesting to take the tarp bailout money and see how much health insurance that would have bought and for how long.
But then the other night, my 20 something nephew told me his buddies are furious that they may be forced to buy health insurance. Most of them have been banking the payments from their jobs instead of taking the insurance.
Steven, many folks cannot afford the Dentist anymore. Even those working with dental insurance.
Lydia,
all good points. When I have said "poor", these are the people that I have most in mind. I realize that when the Bible says poor, it is often in reference to the destitute. But, for instance, a married couple working at Wal-Mart does not have many options in life these days.
Lydia, what's your evidence that all poor children can get dental care?
Twelve-year-old Deamonte Driver died of a toothache Sunday.
A routine, $80 tooth extraction might have saved him. If his mother had been insured. If his family had not lost its Medicaid. If Medicaid dentists weren't so hard to find.
Just saying "They have Medicaid" doesn't mean they're actually covered. Medicaid's reimbursement for dental care is staggeringly low. Most dentists won't accept it.
You can say "Well, that's government health care for you", but the fact is that without government health care -- which is the state Deamonte Driver was in -- children don't see a dentist at all. Private kindness doesn't make sure that kids' teeth are taken care of, and that leads to cavities, pulled teeth, and sometimes worse.
It isn't enough to say "Government health care doesn't work" -- you have to acknowledge that no health care at all also doesn't work. And Government health care doesn't work right now because the States have to pay for it, and the States don't have money.
"I am serious as a heart attack!"
Thu Dec 31, 06:36:00 PM 2009
Kevin, you should read the link before you make such accusations as witch hunts and affirming he was probably only peeping.
Your first reaction is what matters. You are more than willing to give SGM the benfit of the doubt because of who they are. Which is why they get by with such stuff for so long.
And you are right. The first reaction SHOULD BE to call the authorities. Period. So, why don't the big wigs do that? SGM wanted to keep the authorities out of the picture.
Wade is more than welcome to delete any of my comments.
Jonquil, Here is the problem...from the article:
"Dentists also cite administrative frustrations dealing with the Medicaid bureaucracy and the difficulties of serving poor, often transient patients, a study by the state legislatures conference found. "
This is very true and why doctors are refusing more and more medicaid. Most states have a sort of family resouce center of government associated with the public school where such situations are dealt with. It would be interesting to know what public school he was attending.
If anyone thinks they are going to walk into a dentist or doctors office without massive paperwork with tons of delays under a government system is fooling themselves.
If you have any such thoughts, I would recommend going to any social security office and wathcing the proceedings for one day. And many are folks who rely on the check to live.
I have no idea about the details of this family. But I do know from some projects I have managed that the amount of expensive tennis shoes and ipods I have personally seen on low income students who are using state resources for rent payments, health care and food stamps is astronomical.
I can assure you my child does not wear 150 buck sneakers nor has an ipod. We cannot afford them. We have to go to the dentist 2x a year. And no, we do not have dental insurance, either.
"you have to acknowledge that no health care at all also doesn't work. And Government health care doesn't work right now because the States have to pay for it, and the States don't have money."
Jonquil, The Feds do not have the money, either. Except what they take from you first and what they print up that eventually becomes worthless. The states rely on the Feds.
In 1936, the pivotal year, is when all Federal spending became more than all US state and local governments combined. It is now much worse. How long do you think that can continue? As long as we can print more greenbacks which will be worthless?
Where is the church? Instead of asking them to 'tithe', the church should be helping but they are too busy building fancy buildings.
Im glad you dont mind atheists. :)
Hey, one of my predictions came true:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/31/rick-warrens-saddleback-c_n_408115.html
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